For this post you will be reading an article from FoxNews about the Democrats and an article from MSNBC about the Republicans. The FoxNews article focuses on the race for the mayor of DC, which could prove historic. D.C. has never had a non-Democrat mayor, but in 2014 two independents will be running, that might stand a chance. The MSNBC article focuses on the Value Voters Summit, a Republican conference to discuss how the party can reach out to voters who are conservative on social issues, a major base for the Republican party. Read both articles and answer the following questions.
FoxNews article:
1. ID at least four unit 2 concepts in the article with corresponding evidence from the article (I need a concept tied to a brief quote from the article here).
2. Identify two major factors (specifically citing the
article for evidence) that affect a candidate’s chances for winning an election. Rank them in order of importance and explain
why you think each concept is important.
3. How will Catania’s status as a former
Republican-turned-independent affect his chances to win the election come
November? Explain your answer.
MSNBC article:
1. What role do these type of events play in electoral politics? What function do they serve? Answer with reference to at least two functions along with an explanation of why it is important.
2. Do you think it is possible for
Republicans to maintain socially conservative policies and still win over
enough independents (also women and the youth vote) to win the 2016
election? Why or why not?
3. What are some possible political
ramifications if Republicans actually do relax their stance on social policies
to attract independents? Will this
dissuade conservatives from voting for them? Will it leave an opening for a
socially conservative third party to make an impact? Why or why not?
9 comments:
Fox news article:
1. political party ("elected only Democratic mayors"), voters ("city's 456,633 voters"), public policy ("legalize same-sex marriage"), and voter turnout ("just 27 percent of registered democrats voted in the April primary")
2. Party affiliation and voter turnout. Party affiliation is important because it might be one of the main reasons why a candidate gets votes ("He thinks Catania remains "saddled" with the Republican brand.") Voter turnout is important because the votes determine who gets elected. More voters means a better chance of winning and more representation of the people (""if Democrats vote, Democrats win. Period, end of story"")
3. It might be hard for him because Washington DC is primarily democratic, and has voted so for a long time. But him being dependent means that his view on policies and values reaches out to more independent voters leaning democrat than republicans.
MSNBC article:
1. Candidates can share their opinions on topics and can attract media attention and voters. It shows that they are serious about their views and can help raise money (fundraising)
2. No, because independents are not socially conservative on policies (such as abortion, gay rights, etc). To reach the independent votes, they would have to come more to the middle to win the election in order to appeal to them.
3. They might lose the strongly conservative voters that are the base of the Republican party, which could be bad for them. They might vote for a third party that gets the conservative vote instead.
Fox News
1. Political participation (“The city has 456,633 eligible voters) Political idealology (“Just 27 percent of registered democrats voted in the April primary”) Public opinion ( “pointing to a recent poll showing likely voters said roughly 2 to 1 that Bowser has a better “personality and temperament.”) Policy agenda (“he’s mounting an aggressive campaign promising to improve the city’s struggling public school systems and reform a City Hall racked with corruption.”)
2. Addressing the policy agenda and voter political participation. Addressing the policy agenda comes first because when people see that someone is trying to fix and issue that lies within their community, they will be all for that person. (“I think the time is perfect because voters tell me they are sick and tired of this political machine.”) Political participation is next because the voters are the ones that ultimately decide who takes the position. (“ They want a government that listens to them.”)
3. I feel that it will be harder for Catania to win the election because although he is independent, by reading a few of his political standpoints, he seems like an independent leaned democrat. Right now, I believe that the democrats are losing their popularity due to the choices made by the president, therefore, causing for more people to lean more republican.
MSNBC
1. These events serve as ways for candidates to tell voters what they think and to show care for the voters. Ex: Fundraising
2. No because some socially conservative policies are against what independents, women, and the youth believe. For example, some women support issues like abortion which is what the republicans are completely against.
3. The republicans will for sure lose the radical conservatives because they will in no way conform to the beliefs of the republicans. I believe that they will just go for a third party that holds more conservative beliefs.
1. The FOX article shows evidence of 1. exit poll, "an NBC4/Washington Post/Marist poll shows Catania behind 17 percentage points against Democratic frontrunner Muriel Bowser", 2. Patronage/party machine "promising to improve the city's struggling public school system and reform City Hall racked with corruption. "The timing is perfect because voters tell me they are sick and tired of this political machine", 3. Party image "The Democratic label still carries a lot of weight" 4. Party Competition "A second independent in the mayoral race, Carol Schwartz, also a former Republican, now pulls 16 percent of the vote in the latest poll"
2. A candidate's history and attitude (Catania's occasionally "caustic" behavior has alienated some voters")and party image (He thinks Cantania remains "saddled" with the Republican brand")affect a candidates chances of winning an election. A candidates behavior is really important in winning an election because people want to elect someone who is intelligent, responsible, and has a good reputation. Having a good reputation among various groups can influence party image as an individual with an outstanding reputation of helping others and getting work done becomes the "face" of a party.
3. I think Catania's prior status as a Republican will cause Democrats or more liberal minded independents to not vote for him.
MSNBC: 1. These events increase party competition between Democrats and Republicans as the Values Voter Summit attracts independents to vote Republican as political issues are discussed, causing people to maybe change their party image and vote differently.
2. The Republican party will definitely have to move to the center on issues like abortion, and marijuana in order to gain gain women and youth vote and win the 2016 election.
3. If Republicans relax their stance on a view issues and move to the center, it would attract more independents and ultimately be better for the party. I think far right people would still vote for the Republican guy who is predicted the most likely to win, and third parties like the Tea Party would have a little impact because of their small following who support their extreme conservative ideas, and limited fundraising.
(1B)
Fox News Article:
(1) Party Image: “The Democratic label still carries a lot of weight.”
Political Participation: “The city has 456,633 eligible voters.”
Voter Turnout: “Just 27 percent of registered democrats voted in the April primary."
Political Ideology: “I think the population is so ready for an independent outsider.”
(2) The two most important concepts would probably be, the candidate’s image and the voter turnout. First the candidate has to appeal to his or her political party. “Catania, who is white, also is an openly gay candidate in a city considered one of the most liberal in the country.” Catania is openly promoting himself as gay, and in doing so he just may gain those independent votes that the republicans and/or democrats needed. Voter turnout is important, well first it relates back to the candidate’s image, because without a well-liked well promoted candidate there won’t be a great voter turnout. “If Democrats vote, Democrats win. Period, end of story.” So the more citizen support you have the better the voter turnout.
(3) It could go either way in November. He could possibly get those votes that usually are the leaning ones. Or he could lose it all and have a small voter turnout. It really just depends on his promotion and followers.
MSNBC Article:
(1) The role these events play are pulling the parties ideas together. It shows whose running and what ideas and topics they will focus on. Sets platforms. Gets fundraising money and votes.
(2) It really depends. I mean if there not taking to the issues now, keeping the same issues won’t increase the voters it will stay stable. If they want to win they have to change the ideas and issues they focus on.
(3) If Republicans move towards the middle issues, it would attract more independents and help them gain more votes. Republicans would still vote for the Republicans who seems to be predicted to win, and other parties would have a little impact because of their small support groups and limited funds.
Fox News:
1) "yuck factor" (I'm tired of hearing about one scandal after another..I'm not participating.") and strong local economy (helps bring city money and more registered voters)
2) Two major factors: voter turnout and saying things and not doing them. The most important to me is voter turnout. In this scenario, there are 456,633 eligible voters and only 27% voted. The second important thing is saying things to people and not doing them. Catania promised to fund a stadium and has yet to visit the ballpark, "this kind of speaks to his temperament and how he will represent the city."
3) This will affect his changes of winning because the city is Democratic and they want to keep the power they hold. He can make many promises, but most people tend to stick with the party they were with before.
MSNBC:
1) These events get people to pay attention and see what the candidates main focus is.
2) No, because most people won't change their political views and they would have to stop having such conservative views.
3) They will lose the strong Republicans while trying to get individuals and it might leave an opening.
FoxNews
1.Political party- "Catania is a former Republican turned independent. This automatically makes his mayoral bid an uphill climb." Political participation- "The District has 456,633 registered voters of which Democrats account for 76%." Voter turnout- "In the April primary only 27% of registered Democrats voted." Party image- "Will Sommer says "The Democrat label still carries a lot of weight and that Catania remains settled with Republican brand."
2. Political participation and party image. Political participation is a huge factor because even though a majority of the people are elected democrats, if they don't show up to vote the minority candidate could win. Party image is important because Catania is a former republican in a town where 76% of voters are Democrats. Even though he's no longer a republican, he still is labeled with that brand and people think of him as that. The article says "The district has never elected a white or openly gay mayor.", which he is both of those things and his opponent is black.
3.His chances go down. He may not be liberal enough for democratic voters and may not be conservative for republicans. 3/4's of the district are registered democrats and if they vote purely on party lines, he stands no chance. Also there's another former republican, now independent running, so they could take votes away from the other.
MSNBC
1. They're trying to rally the party base, the republicans. It's a political pep rally and they're trying to inform party members about people's ideas and get them excited about the election to go vote.
2. It will be hard for Republicans to maintain socially conservative policies and still win over independents. The youth questions why there needs to be rules and women want control over their reproductive systems. "Liberals say that conservatives are trying to over rule women's reproductive rights by voting against birth control and abortion."
3.In the past they've strayed away from their values which caused the tea party and the tea party takes votes away from them. It will cause a split amongst republicans.
MSNBC article:
1. As a candidate, by speaking at these events and appealing to those in attendance, a candidate could gain donations and supporters. Also, in order to appeal to these audiences, the candidate may be more inclined to say things that appeal to the group specifically. Yet at the same time, the candidate might be alienating others who may have donated to the campaign and volunteered. Furthermore, it allows the candidate to reach many political active individuals at a time.
2.It is possible for instance if the economy takes a downturn and republicans promise to restore employment and reduce taxes. In the end, the most important issue is the economy. Also if the war with Isis becomes involved and many Americans are dying, voters may associate the war with president Obama and the democrats. The republicans could then promise America out of the war which may be a bigger deal than social issues.
3. The far right base of the Republican Party could break away from the Republican Party and create their own or join the tea party. The far right base could decide to donate less money and provide fewer volunteers for the campaign. There could be more internal strife within the Republican Party which would make the party look weak with less ability to run the country. This will most definitely dissuade conservatives from not voting for moderate republicans. It will leave an opening for a socially conservative third party to make an impact because it would take votes away from the moderate republican candidates.
4.There’s much more bias in the article in reference to attacking the RNC as compared to the defense of the Value Voter Summit by the FRC president. The author refers to the more conservative presidential hopefuls as firebrands insinuating they are radicals (a negative connotation).
^^^^
Fox News:
1.Party Image: “The nation's capital has elected only Democratic mayors since it started holding public elections in 1974" ”
Political Participation: “The city has 456,633 eligible voters.”
Public policy: "Legalize same-sex marriage"
2. The two most important factors that affect a candidates chances for winning an election are voter turnout and party Competition. Voter turnout is what actually dictates the winner of the election thus the most important factor; "if Democrats vote, Democrats win. Period, end of story". Also in the article it states "A second independent in the mayoral race, Carol Schwartz, also a former Republican, now pulls 16 percent of the vote in the latest poll" which shows the political competition which is very crucial in an election.
3. Catania's status as a former Republican-turned-independent will affect his chances of winning for the negative because he will not have the votes of the strong democrats nor the votes of the strong republicans. And in my opinion, their aren't enough independents to win over an election in a predominately democratic state.
FOX News
1. policy voting: “I think the timing is perfect because voters tell me they are sick and tired of this political machine,” Catania told FoxNews.com this week. “They want a government that listens to them.”
Party image: “The Democrat label still carries a lot of weight,”
Public opinion: “the city’s political history and headwinds”
Voter turnout: “just 27 percent of registered Democrats voted in the primary”
2. The voter turnout for ach major party is the most critical factor (““if Democrats vote, Democrats win. Period, end of story.”) However, there is also some importance in the perception of the candidates’ personalities and morals: “People get tired of hearing about one scandal after the next after the next, and they say, ‘You know what? Yuck. I’m not participating.’
3. Washington DC has never not elected a Democratic mayor, and thus Catania is inhibited by his former affiliation with the Republican party. However, I believe there is a good chance that Catania can make history and get elected due to Democratic corruption.
MSNBC
1. The Values Voter Summits are one way for the Republican party to appeal to its far-right members in the midst of the increasing move to the center. The party essentially reassures their extreme conservative base that the policies are not trying to alienate this group. Another function of these events is the discussion of the best way to expand the Republican voter base. Different methods of becoming more moderate are discussed for their merit and potential to expand the voter base without losing the rock-ribbed conservatives.
2. I think it is entirely possible. The Republicans can still move to the center and maintain all of the far-right votes due to the two-party dynamic- since it is so hard for a third party to win, the extreme conservatives will vote for the party that most closely aligns with their views, which would still be the Republicans.
3. In the modern American society, both parties are headed towards more moderate stances, and thus the Republican Party’s shift to the center is less significant than it may seem. That being said, there will be increased division within the party as a result of shifting ideology.
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