Tuesday, November 4, 2014
Mitch McConnell: An Electoral Case Study
Comment on the questions we discussed in class below:
Article 1
"McConnell concedes GOP Senate will not mean Obamacare repeal"
1. What are some of the main reasons Mitch McConnell is “tempering expectations” about the possibility of an Obamacare repeal if the Senate goes Republican after this election? Cite the text specifically in your answer.
2. Identify the key congressional power that McConnell sites as the best possibility for taking down the “highly destructive Obamacare.”
3. Do you think Obama will allow any part of the ACA (e.g. the medical equipment tax) to be repealed? Why might he give in? Why might he stand firm? Why or why not?
Article 2
"Senator Mitch McConnell has more than most riding on midterm elections"
1. Why do you think the Washington thinks “they’re smarter than all the rest of us” approach garners support? Explain.
2. How can experience and being seen as a “shrewd inside player” hurt you in a campaign? How can it help? Explain.
3. Do you think McConnell will win? Why or why not?
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Mitch McConnell is "tempering expectations" about the possibility Obamacare repeal because he knows that he isn't going to win the repeal. The article says, "It would take 60 votes in the Senate. No one thinks we're going to have 60 Republicans. And it would take a presidential signature. No one thinks we're going to get that." Even if they did get the votes they needed and Obama vetoed it, they would still need two-thirds of each house to overrule his veto, which is very unlikely. McConnell believes he is more likely to succeed at getting parts of Obamacare modified, than getting the whole thing repealed. McConnell needs to win the Majority Leader in order to have any progress. This way he can go on the offensive side and start pushing ideas to help America's problems, otherwise they will lose all say, due to the outlook of 2016's elections. Obama might give in to the ACA being repealed because it is hurting the Democratic party by being split. If the party is having disagreements, then it makes them seem like they are less reliable. He might stand firm because he has already ran twice for president, so he can't run again. It wouldn't matter if it effected his ratings because he doesn't need them right now, he is still in office for another two years. He may say that he will look into it, but in the long run he won't do anything major to it.
The Washington thinks 'they're smarter than all the rest of us" approach garners support because it creates a sense of togetherness with McConnell and his people. Since his support has been going down, he realized that he needs to step up his game, therefor he is trying to gain the support by going about the approach of oneness. As a wise person once said, "I am you, we are us". It reminds the Kentucky people that he is also from Kentucky and he still thinks the same way they do. Being a "shrewd inside player" can hurt your campaign because it makes you seem like you don't actually care about the people you represent, and instead you just care about the power of the position. It may help in the long run, because when you do open up and talk about certain aspects, then people will listen and think "okay, so maybe he does listen to us". By being an "inside player" he can "play to his strengths" easier, because he knows what he is good at and what he isn't. I don't think he will win because his opponent is strong and has a different support group. I also think that the distance he has created with Kentucky will prove to be a problem, because some people may feel like he has become to accustomed to the Washington lifestyle.
McConnell is tempering expectations because he is trying to be realistic about the possibility of an Obamacare repeal. In order to repeal the ACA, it would need the 60 votes in the Senate (60 Republicans, which is not probable), and the signature of the President. As Obamacare is connected to the President and he is Democratic, there is a high chance he would veto the repeal. Since he is in power for 2 more years, it is not realistic until a new president is elected. The key congressional power is restricting funding to agencies. I believe he would not allow any part to be repealed because the Affordable Care Act is linked to him, and if we was in favor of removing any part of it, then he would look very hypocritical.
It garners support because it makes McConnell come across as more relate able and less of a Washingtonian, more of a Kentuckian. It can hurt in a campaign because they don't seem as open and friendly, and they can come across as being old and not having fresh ideas. It can help him by making him seem as if he sticks to his goals of being Senate majority leader. Yes, because he is anti-Obama, focuses on policies important to Kentucky (coal), and is the republican incumbent.
1. Mitch McConnell is "tempering expectations" dealing with the chance of an Obamacare repeal because he believes that the entire idea is nearly impossible. He mentions that it would take 60 votes in the senate and a presidential approval in order to repeal Obamacare. Since the majority party in the Senate is the Democrats, McConnell mentions that there aren't even 60 Republicans in the Senate and Democrats are unlikely to go against an act proposed by a Democratic president. McConnell also mentions that Obama is in office for two more years so instead of trying to repeal Obamacare, McConnell believes that he should focus on other important issues.
2. McConnell sites that the best possibility for taking down the "highly destructive Obamacare" is the congressional "power of the purse" because they control budget funding.
3. I think that Obama will allow part of the ACA to be repealed within reason and the changes would only go to a certain extent. If the issue concerning the act is unanimous, then I would think that Obama would allow these changes because some Democrats are against Obamacare as well and he would need to gain back their support.
1. Mitch McConnell's "Washington thinks 'they're smarter than all the rest of us'" approach garners support because he is trying to separate himself from those in the White House to show to people that he is still in touch with those that he is supposed to represent.
2. Being seen as a "shrewd inside player" helps in a campaign because the experience gives the candidate the first hand knowledge of the legislative process. Being seen that way can also hurt the candidate because the longer the time spent in the office means that it is more likely that the candidate has made a mistake and the opponent can use their mistake to make them unpopular among the constituents.
3. I think McConnell will win because he tries to make himself appear as if he relates more to the constituents and he has experience in the policy making process.
1. Some of the main reasons that McConnell is tempering expectations are because it would take 60 votes to pass anything in the senate. Then they would need the president’s signature. He wants to attack the smaller laws and try to have those repealed.
2. One key congressional power that the senate can do that can possibly take down the highly destructive Obamacare law is to restrict funding. If there isn’t any money to fund the project, then they can’t continue with the plans and the executive branch would have to work out a compromise with the congress to get the money back.
3. I think that he will repeal the law because his approval rates are so low and for him to be more favored, he will pass this one law to help improve his ratings. He will not veer far from his views and how he feels but I think that he will be open to some new changes. Also there would be a higher demand from the senate because now the majority of the senate is republican so the president will be seeing a lot more republican viewed bills coming to his desk.
1. Washington thinks that it garners support because they feel that McConnell has gone way too far with his policies and he had “gone way to Washington”. He has gotten so caught up in the federal policies that he forgets his own polices and what he truly believes in to help make the change in the senate that is needed.
2. It can hurt the campaigner because it would make them seem less approachable and not ambitious to their goals. They have more time in office to make mistakes which will get them voted out quickly.
3. I don’t think that he will win re-election because he is not that well-liked by his voters and his opponent seems like she is very hands on and wants to be involved. She is very vibrant and wants to make a change. Also voters would want a new senator to help pose their new modern views because he still holds older views.
1) He is doing this because then if he doesn't get into office, he can still get Obamacare repealed.
2) He wants the Senate to vote to get rid of it, and to bring it to the president's attention.
3) No I don't, because if he does that he's admitting that his system is wrong and makes it a lot easier to get rid of Obamacare a lot easier.
1) He said that because he is defending the common man and saying he is one of them.
2) His experience can hurt him because he's "out of fresh ideas" and being a "shrewd inside player" makes him sound like he's mean, against the people/only for himself, and so on.
3) No, because he is older, he has been in office for a long time, he's dull, he's unpopular, and so on.
1. The main reasons Mitch McConnell is "tempering expectations" is because he knows that his chances to possibly repeal Obamacare is very slim. Due to the fact that he needs 60 votes in the Senate and a presidential signature, Obama is affiliated with Obamacare and he will most likely veto the repeal.
2. McConnell sites the best possibility for taking down the highly destructive Obamacare is to ultimately restrict funding.
3. I believe that Obama will not allow any part to be repealed because the ACA is affiliated with him and because his approval rates are very low, the better option for him would be to not allow it.
1. Washington thinks that they are "smarter than the rest of us" approach garners support because McConnell's policies have strayed away from dealing directly with the common man and focused more on federal policies. By separating himself from the White House he is trying to show that he is still in touch with the people to try to gain back lost supporters.
2. It can hurt in a campaign because it can make the candidate seem not really "for the people" and more for the power. It could help because it shows that he will not change his longterm goals.
3. I do not think he will win because he has lost many supporters be affiliating himself more with the federal policies and the white house, rather than staying connected to the people. I think people are looking forward to seeing someone new with new ideas and policies.
Article 1: "McConnell concedes GOP Senate will not mean Obamacare repeal"
1. “It would take 60 votes in the Senate. No one thinks we’re going to have 60 Republicans. And it would take a presidential signature. No one thinks we’re going to get that,” McConnell said during a campaign-stop interview with Fox News.
2. McConnell wants to have the Senate Democrats vote on the most unpopular parts of the law and put it on the president’s desk and have him take ownership of it.
3. I think Obama will not allow any part of the ACA to be repealed and stand firm because it is his legacy as a president and he is stubborn.
Article 2: "Senator Mitch McConnell has more than most riding on midterm elections"
1. I think the Washington thinks “they’re smarter than all the rest of us” approach garners support because it makes him seem like he is average or middle class which would get him votes
2. Being seen as a “shrewd inside player” hurt you in a campaign because people think you are shady. It can also help you because it means that he will fight for the state of Kentucky to get heard in Washington.
3. I think he will win because the democrats are hurting from being tied to the president.
Article 1:
1) Mitch McConnell is "tempering expectations" because he knows even if the majority wins he won't get the Senate. (third paragraph) He would also have to get some parts repealed. (fifth paragraph)
2) To possibly take down "highly destructive Obamacare", they should restrict funding.
3) Obama might concede a little bit to help Democrats have a better image.
Article 2:
1) Washington thinks "they're smarter than the rest of us" because it brings them together with the people. It helps them come back in touch with others.
2) Being a "shrewd inside player" can help in a campaign because it lacks fresh ideas and if anything goes wrong, the blame will go back on you.
3) I think McConnell will win because he has experience and people on his side.
(1B)
1. McConnell is “tempering expectations” because takes 60 votes to pass anything in the senate, and in his case republican votes. Also he needs the president’s signature and Obama still has two years in office. Attacking smaller laws is what he seems to be trying to do.
2. One congressional power that the senate can try and do is restrict funding to take down the highly destructive Obamacare law. No money equals no progress. And no progress equals no deal or support from the people making it a waste.
3. I think that he will repeal the law because he wants to gain back his support and ratings, and to help the democratic party in general. But he will keep to his political viewpoint so if he felt like not repealing it then he probably wouldn’t.
1. Washington thinks that it garners support because McConnell’s policies have “gone way to Washington”. McConnell has focused on federal policies and not really his own polices and what he and his party believe will help the Senate.
2. It can hurt the campaigner because it shows that they have been in so long that their policies should have taken them farther by now had they been any good. And it help because it shows experience and shown to have supporters to keep them in.
3. I am not really sure if he would win or not. I am sort of unaware of all of his policies. But as an incumbent he should have an advantage. He seems to speak his mind so I guess he has a chance.
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